In this episode of the Personal Finance Podcast, Andrew breaks down the 2-Fund Portfolio.
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In this episode of the Personal Finance Podcast, Andrew breaks down the 2-Fund Portfolio.
In this episode of the Personal Finance Podcast, Andrew breaks down the 2-Fund Portfolio.
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Transcript
On this episode of the Personal Finance Podcast, we are gonna do the complete breakdown of the two fun portfolio, a k A, the Warren Buffet portfolio.
What's up to everybody and welcome to the Personal Finance Podcast. I'm your host Andrew, founder of Master money.co. And today on the Personal Finance Podcast, we're gonna be talking about the complete breakdown of the two fun portfolio, aka the Warren. Portfolio. If you guys have any questions, make sure you hit us up on Instagram or TikTok at Master Money Co.
And follow us on Spotify, apple Podcast or whatever podcast player you're listening to this podcast on right now. And if you wanna help out the show, leave a five star rating in review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Thank you so much for leaving those five star ratings and reviews. They mean the world to me.
And if you guys are getting value outta the show, make sure you share it with a family. For friend. So today we are gonna be doing a breakdown of the Warren Buffet portfolio and we're gonna go through this two fund portfolio. It is a very simple portfolio to construct and it is one that I think is an amazing portfolio to look at and we're gonna go to a deep dive breakdown.
I'm gonna get all my data from Y Charts. If you've never seen Y Charts, it's a great. Place to get really deep dive data. If you're really serious about this stuff, it's an amazing way to actually get some of this information. So I'll link it up down below as well, so that you can check that out. I think they have a seven day free trial if you wanna follow along and see some of the stuff that we're gonna be talking about here today.
So, We're gonna talk about this Warren Buffett portfolio, and we're gonna talk about why it's called the Warren Buffett portfolio. But the main reason is because he puts his own wife's money in this exact portfolio. And the way that he breaks this down is his wife's money and his children's inheritance as well, goes in this exact portfolio and talks through why most investors should have some sort of portfolio just like this.
And so what we're gonna do is. Compare this portfolio to our good old fashioned friend, the S N P 500. Yes, the 500 largest companies in the US stock market. Now, one thing I want you to note before we dive into this episode, as well as Warren Buffet did not get rich off this portfolio. This is not how he built his wealth, but this is how he thinks 99% of people should invest their dollars.
How Warren Buffet built his wealth is he bought businesses, he bought entire companies and built them up over time. He learned how to value invest via Benjamin. And started investing very early on, and not only did he invest in the stock market, but he also would buy a bunch of different companies. For example, one that he bought early on was Sea's Candy and Sea's.
Candy is a company that he bought for 25 million, and when he bought this company, it was a struggling candy company. Then he built this company up and it pays something like 10 x. What he actually bought it for every single. To him and he has a bunch of different companies, just like this example. And if you wanna learn more about Warren Buffet, one of my favorite books about him is called The Warren Buffet Way, and I don't really hear a lot of people talk about this book, but the Warren Buffet Way actually will take you through a bunch of his business deals and kind of how he thought through this process.
And I absolutely love that book for that reason. And I try to read it every couple of years over and over again because it reminds me how to think through investing. And it reminds me how investing should. Approached and how you should approach any investment whatsoever. Now, as we deep dive into this portfolio, we're gonna talk about the two fund Warren Buffet portfolio.
We're gonna talk about the performance of this portfolio. In addition, we're gonna see how Failproof is this portfolio. We actually had a researcher who went out and they looked at this, how failproof is the Warren Buffet portfolio? Is it fail-proof? Or is there some instances where it could completely fail?
And then we're gonna talk about how to set one up in all of my favorite brokerages. So we're gonna talk about M one Finance. We're gonna talk about Vanguard, we're gonna talk about Fidelity, and we're even gonna talk about Charles Schwab as well. So without further ado, Let's get into it. All right, so the first thing we're gonna look at here is in this episode, we're gonna see where did Warren Buffet actually start talking about this?
And he actually started talking through this in his letter to shareholders. Now, if you've never read Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders, we'll link it up down the show notes below. It is an amazing place to get some of the best investment information you've ever read in your entire. And if you've never read them and you're really into investing, I would encourage you to go back and read all of them.
They're all available on the Berkshire Hathaway website. It is some of the most amazing reads that you will ever read. It's better than any investment book, in my opinion, and I go through and read them every single year. If you guys want me to do a breakdown of those letters every year as they come out, let me know and I'll talk through that.
I'll do an episode on that every single year. Of one of his letters that comes out for this year, for example. So for the Warren Buffet letter to shareholders, the first one that he mentioned this portfolio in was 2013. So he first mentioned this in his 2013 letter to shareholders, and this is exactly what he said In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do.
In the 20th century, the Dow Jones Industrials Index Advanced from 66 to 11,497. Paying a rising stream of dividends to boot the 20th first century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. Here's the key right here. The goal of the non-professional investor, meaning you and I, the non-professional investor, should be not to pick winner.
Meaning not to pick any random stock. Neither he nor his helpers can do that, but should rather be to own a cross section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low cost s and p 500 index fund will achieve that goal. So here is hint number one, that Warren lays out this portfolio. A low cost s and p 500 index fund will achieve that goal.
Now, there's two questions here that we. One is how much of our portfolio should be wee holding in the s and p 502? Is there any other things that we need to have in this portfolio outside of the s and p 500? We're gonna find out here because in 2014 he clarified some of this in his 200,014 letters, shareholders, and you can go on the website and read these as well if you wanna look through here.
Cause it's a really, really cool read. My advice to the trustee could not be more simple. This is key right here. 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds, and 90% in a very low cost s and p 500 index fund. And then he says, I suggest vanguards Buffett stated in a 2014 letter to shareholders. Then he goes on and says, I believe the trust long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by investors, whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals who employ high fee managers.
We just received portfolio advice from the greatest investor of all time. He just laid it out right here. Put 10% of the cash in short term government bonds and 90% in very low cost S P 500 Index fund. He suggested Vanguard. We're gonna talk about how to build that in Vanguard later on, and we're gonna talk about how to build it in other brokerages as well so that you can get the best possible outcome here.
But we just received portfolio advice from the world's greatest investor. Now he goes on later on to talk about why. Thinks this is an amazing portfolio and the major reason why he likes index funds is because of fees, and he thinks that index funds will beat out fees. In fact, very early on, Warren Buffet made a bet with hedge fund managers over the course of 10 years and said, Hey, if an s and p 500 index fund will beat your returns, then we'll make a million dollar bet.
This is a $1 million bet that Warren Buffett made with Wall Street and guess. Warren Buffet actually won that bet, meaning the s and p 500 Index Fund that he invested in outperformed any mutual fund and active fund manager. Why the fees are the biggest part about this and he thinks low cost index funds, which is why we have Index Fund Pro available to you because I want everybody to learn how to invest in index funds in ETFs.
It's our course that teaches you exactly how to do this. This is why we did this, because index fund investing is a way to build generational wealth. And Warren Buffet talks about it right here. So when we're talking through the Warren Buffet portfolio, what we want to know is, okay, well what will this portfolio return?
Obviously, we're gonna go through a bunch of different things here and we're gonna break down this portfolio, but how would it return over time? So let's break down this portfolio and how he would actually construct it. And he's talked about this as. So the Vanguard Fund is V F I A X is Vanguard's 500 Index Admiral Shares.
So that is the s and p 500 index fund that Warren Buffet invests his family's money in. And so he puts 90% in this s and p 500 index fund, and then in the bond market fund, he puts 10%. And the one that I like is vb. T L X, which is the total bond market index fund. Now, he talks about short-term bonds here, but the total bond market index funds means that you'll encompass a bunch of different bonds that are out there.
So we're gonna map this out in Y charts so that we can see how this exact portfolio would perform. So let's look at some key stats here. So I put this together in Y charts and some key stats that we have available. So, With the Warren Buffalo portfolio, if you have those two funds, your expense ratio would be 0.04%.
This is an extremely low cost portfolio, which is why we wanna reduce those costs, and it's a really incredibly important, we have an entire episode talking about how impactful this is, but it is a six figure decision to reduce your cost when it comes to investing your dollars. The dividend yield is gonna be 1.6600000000000001%.
In this portfolio. Obviously the stock net allocation is gonna be 90% bond, net allocation is gonna be 10%, and then what we have here, Annualized all-time returns. So the daily annualized all-time returns. At the time recording. This is 9.99%, so you guys hear me talking about a 10% rate of return all the time.
This is 90% stocks, 10% bonds, 9.99%, and so this is incredibly. Important to understand. You gotta understand some of these metrics when you are investing in index funds, so you know what you're getting into. Priority number one is the expense ratio and priority number two is making sure that it's actually mirroring the index.
Meaning it's following the index exactly how it should be. So with the s and p 500 index fund, it should be following the s and p 502 A T. That is very important to understand because all it should do is mirror. And Vanguard's funds, definitely, definitely do that. Now, one question you may be having here is what about international exposure?
There's no international exposure in this portfolio, and one thing to note about international exposure is that a lot of people out there recommend international exposure to diversify your investment. When it comes to investing in stocks, they want you to have international exposure so that when the US market doesn't do well, hopefully those international portfolio.
Will allow you to weather out that storm during those times. It helps you just have less volatility in your portfolio if the US market is not doing well, and you can see it's missing U international exposure here. So why would Uncle Warren leave out international exposure here? Here's my first reason.
The s and p 500 has tons of companies who do business overseas. In fact, you can think of Apple, for example. Apple makes all the components of its iPhone outside of the us so it's doing a ton of international business outside the us. The s and p 500 is the 500 largest companies in the us. They are all doing international business for the most part.
So this is something where you can look at. You can look at Facebook, you can think of all these large companies that are doing business outside of the us. There's a lot of international exposure inside of the s and p 500. That is number one. Number two is regulations. For us, stocks are much higher than regulation for international stocks are.
So this is another reason why Warren has talked about why he looks at the s and p five. And then number three, and this is a major one right now, is that international funds have vastly underperformed US stocks. I mean, it is a massive difference between the two, whereas the s and p 500 has returned over 10% to investors, these international index funds have done anywhere between Florida's.
6% depending on what you're investing in. So it's a much lower rate of return that has come about, especially in recent years now. There have been years where international funds outperform US stocks, and typically, like we talked about, it's when there's big economic events in the us. So for example, 2007 and 2008 international funds did better than US stocks.
And during the tech bubble, they also did better during that timeframe. So it depends on the timeframe you're looking at. So context matters here. When you're looking at your portfolio, you have to understand what the context is, and then you have to have some sort of tool to map this out because check but verify should always be your go-to.
I don't care if it's a financial advisor telling you what to do. I don't care if it's your. Uncle, your aunt, your best friend. It doesn't matter who is telling you what to do. Me on this podcast, you need to trust but verify when you're looking at somebody's portfolio numbers. Never just listen to somebody and do it.
That is the big key here. You gotta do your own research When it comes to building out your portfolio, this is your freedom that you have at. Stake. So it's worth your time to do some research. Then you can just set it and forget it. Once you have that research in play, you can say, Hey, do I want some of this international exposure?
Do I wanna have this in place? Because if it makes you feel weird that you have zero international exposure, then maybe that's an indicator of your risk tolerance, and maybe you wanna have some international exposure in there because listen, historic performance is obviously not an indicator of future results, but that's all we have to go on.
It is all we have to go on is historic performance. So a lot of people will say what I just said as a caveat. When they're trying to tell you something. But all we have to go off of is historical performance. It's all we have. Nobody knows what's gonna happen in the future. Nobody has a crystal ball. So making sure that you do your own research is incredibly important when it comes to this stuff.
But if you are uncomfortable without having any international exposure whatsoever, that talks about your wrist tolerance and maybe you should have international exposure, you gotta think through that and say, do I want this in my portfolio? And then look at some of the returns. Do some of your research on there so that you can see.
Should I add international exposure, a three fund portfolio? Would be if you added international exposure to this portfolio. So say for example, you wanted to have 70% in the s and p, 500, 20% in international fund and 10% bonds. Now you have a three fund portfolio. That's what you have in play there. And we will have some episodes coming up on a three fund portfolio as well and how it would perform against some of these.
Now we're gonna talk about it here as well in a second. So the performance against the s and p 500, let's look at this. Now, obviously we are looking at something that is heavily weighted in the s and p 500. These should be very, very close, but it should be a little bit lower because it has bond funds in there.
So let's look at the difference here when we're looking at this between the s and p 500. And the Warren Buffet portfolio over this timeframe, we can look at the last five years. The Warren Buffet portfolio returned 9.88% and the s and p 500 returned 10.75%. At the time, recording this over the last 10 years, the Warren Buffet portfolio did 11.57% and the s and p 500 did 12.67.
Over the last 20 years, 9.81% for the Warren Buffet portfolio and the s and p 510.44% an all time 9.99% for the Warren Buffet portfolio, and 9.94% for the s and p 500, which is very interesting, but it's an all time return, not just. Returns over that timeframe. So what I like to look at is the returns over the last 20 years.
Warren Buffet portfolio 9.81% s and P 510.44%. Now these should be obviously very close because it is so heavily weighted with the s and p 500 in there, so we should expect these to be very close. But the next thing we're gonna look at here, Is the performance against the three fund portfolio, which I just talked about.
We're gonna do like a traditional three fund portfolio and see how the Warren Buffet portfolio performed against that three fund portfolio next. All right, so I went into Y charts and I have a three fund portfolio that we created here. And the three fund portfolio consists of V T S ax, which is the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, one of my favorite index funds of all time.
And it's going to have 50% in V T S ax and it's gonna have the International Fund, V T I A X, which is the International Index Fund at 30%. And then it's gonna have the Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund at 20% VB tlx. Now that's the three fund portfolio that we have here. 50, 30, 20 portfolio in this three fund portfolio.
And we'll look at the difference between the two right now. So the last three years, the three fund portfolio has returned 4.92% to investors on a 50, 30, 20. And the Warren Buffet portfolio has returned 7.79%. Now, we've had a recent bear market when I'm recording this episode, so that's why some of these numbers are slightly lower at that time.
For the three year mark over the five year timeframe, 9.78% to the Warren Buffet portfolio and 6.19%. To the three fund portfolio over 10 years, 11.59% for the Warren Buffet portfolio and only 7.91% for the three fund portfolio over 15 years. 9.38% to Warren Buffet portfolio, 6.6899999999999995% to the three fund portfolio over 20 years.
Now. This 20 years is going to encompass. That timeframe I told you about in 2007 and 2008, where international stocks did outperform the s and p 500. And so you're gonna see, it's gonna catch up here. So your timeframe in the context really matters. This is what I'm talking about here, because you could see the three fund portfolio was underperforming with those international stocks, but let's see what it does now.
So, 20 years, 8.52% for the three fund portfolio. Amazing return. And then for the Warren Buffet portfolio, 9.87%. And then we're looking at all time returns during this timeframe, 10.01% for the Warren Buffet portfolio, and 7.15% for the three fund portfolio. So the Warren Buffet portfolio definitely has outperformed the three fund portfolio historically by at least one.
In every single timeframe. So that is something to take note as well when you're looking at these three fund portfolios. Now, three fund portfolios are also held a lot of times in target date retirement funds. That's typically what it consists of is a three fund portfolio. Now the question then becomes, well, is the Warren Buffet portfolio a good retirement portfolio?
That's something we gotta consider as well. Cuz if we're gonna construct this portfolio, how does it do over the course of. So if you got that 9.81% return, if we take the 20 year returns and do it over the course of 30 years, let's say you got that same exact return, then with a 90 10 portfolio and you put a thousand dollars per month every single month over the course of 30 years, at the end of that 30 years, you'd have $1,988,454 available to you inside of that Warren Buffet portfolio with that 9.81% return.
So what that means is if you had that in retirement, you could draw. $79,538 in retirement according to the 4% rule. If you don't know what the 4% rule is, it is a rule that states that you can draw down 4% of your portfolio in retirement and still preserve your wealth over that timeframe. Now, if you are risky verse, you can go down to 3.5%.
If you think that's too low, then you can go to 4.5% or whatever else you wanna do. But the 4% rule is a nice happy middle ground there. Now, if you did it with $500 a month, the same. $500 per month over the course of 30 years, you'd have $994,227 in your portfolio. Now, if you increase that amount, it's gonna be obviously much larger, but I think it's a great retirement portfolio that you can have in place at a 90 10 and really be able to still ride out some of those waves.
And we're gonna talk about that here as well because is this portfolio fail proof? That's a key that we wanna understand here is, is this failproof or how Failproof. Well, Javier Estrada, who is a financial researcher, did the research on this, or he's gonna compare this to a lot more conservative portfolios as well.
We're gonna do a tire episode on his research on these portfolios, but I'm gonna touch on it here as well because it's very important when it comes to the Warren Buffet portfolio to understand this. So what he did was he took a thousand dollars investment. He did it over a very long time horizon. So he had timeframes beginning 1900 all the way up to 2014.
And I'm gonna link up this paper as well down below if you wanna read it. But he has timeframes all the way through this with 86 intervals in all. And he's looking at, well, how well does the Warren Buffet portfolio perform against other much more conservative portfolios? And so we have a very cool data set here that I'm gonna go through that's gonna show you, Hey, here's how fail-proof this portfolio actually is.
So during all those timeframes, all 86 intervals in those timeframes, here's the split. So he did the stock bond split, and then he did the failure rate. So stock bond split meaning. What percentage are in stocks and what percentage are in bonds, and then what is the failure rate? Meaning how likely is this to.
During all of these timeframes historically, so we're gonna go through all of these here. Now, a 100% stock portfolio had a 3.5% failure rate, which is very low. I mean, this is a very low failure rate. It is something that you do not have to lose sleepover or anything like that. It's still a very low failure rate.
Warren Buffet's portfolio. Had a 2.3% failure rate. Now, here's where it gets interesting, because an 80 20 portfolio, meaning 80% stocks, 20% bonds, had also a 2.3% failure rate, but the Warren Buff portfolio significantly outperformed the 80 20. 70 30 had a 1.2% failure rate and the 60 40 portfolio, and this is what we're gonna do probably an entire episode on as well, is to break some of this down.
The 60 40 portfolio had a 0% failure rate, but the difference is the Warren Buffet portfolio, signif. LY outperformed that 60 40 portfolio. So the failure rate is only a 2.3% differential, even though 60 40 is 0%. But the Warren Buffet portfolio significantly outperformed it 50 50, 50% stocks, 50% bonds, 1.2%, 40 63 0.5%.
Here's where it gets really wacky. A 30% stock, 70% bond portfolio, which most people consider a very safe portfolio, had a 12.8% failure. So that would significantly underperform the Warren Buffet portfolio, and it has a way higher failure rate than the Warren Buffet portfolio. So if you go heavily weighted in bonds, what this shows is that your failure rate increases and you don't get as high of returns because stocks historically have outperformed with bonds.
So the Warren Buffet portfolio is an amazing asset allocation to consider when it comes to this and when it comes to actually building out this portfolio. So next what we're gonna get into is how I would build the Warren Buffet portfolio in every single brokerage in one finance, fidelity, Vanguard, and Charles Swap.
So let's do that next. All right. So we are gonna talk about how I would. Set up a Warren Buffet portfolio in various brokerages, and the first one we're gonna go through is M one Finance. Why? Because M one Finance just released a new feature that I absolutely love that allows you to rebalance your portfolio with one click.
So M one Finance, if you don't know what it is, it doesn't have index funds, it only has ETFs. So I'm gonna show you how to build out a Warren Buffet portfolio with ETFs first. Then we'll go through the rest. Of the brokerages as well. And to make it easy, I also have a one click button where you can look at this portfolio on M one Finance, so you can check that out in the show notes as well so that you can see this exact pie and have the Warren Buffet portfolio at your fingertips there.
So the Warren Buff portfolio with ETFs, the first one is v o o and v o O is Vanguard's, s n P 500 etf. So the target allocation, if it's a 90 10 portfolio is you have 90% in the s and p 500. So VO L will be 90. And then there's Vanguard Short-Term Treasury etf, which is V G S H. And V G S H is a 10% allocation, and that's how you can build out this portfolio with ETFs on M one Finance.
So that's the first one I would consider or look at, do your research on. Obviously this is not investment advice, obviously, I'm just telling you how I would build out these portfolios, but we have a link to that one down below so that you could check that out on in one finance. And that's what I love about in one finance is you can put these pies together and you just automatically invest into these pies.
You can automate your finances, automate it into these pies, and that's how you can completely automate your money when it comes to investing. Now, the second one is Vanguard. Vanguard we've talked about, but the Vanguard Admiral Shares or V F I A X. Is the Vanguard s and p 500 Admiral Share, so that'd be 90% in the s and p 500 and the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index or V B T L X would be 10% into that side of the portfolio as well.
Now, fidelity has a very similar s and p 500 index fund. It's called FX A I X, and all these s and p 500 index funds and et. Or just mirroring the s and p 500. So they all should have very, very similar returns when it comes to these portfolios. And then there's also a Fidelity short-term bond index fund, and the ticker is F N S O X.
So F N S O X would be 10% in the Fidelity Fund. And then with Charles Schwab, you can look at something like, S W P P X for the s and p 500, which is the Schwab s and p 500 index. And then you can look at the Schwab short-term bond index, say that five times fast, S W S B X, and that'd be 10% allocation into Schwab when you do it that way.
So that is how I would build out a Warren Buffett portfolio in all of these different brokerages. And one finance will be the easiest way to do it. If you already have that open, you can just click on that pie there and check that. But with any of these brokerage accounts, I like all of these brokerage accounts here that are available.
These are my four favorites that are out there, and there are some that I don't like as well. Shout out Robinhood don't like you. There's a lot of great brokerages out there, but these are my top four by far. Listen, I hope you guys learned a ton about the Warren Buffet portfolio today in the breakdown of this portfolio.
If you like these types of episodes, if you like me to break down portfolios like this, let me know and we can do more episodes like this. You can reach out to me at master money.co/contact. If you just go to master money.co, there's a button. Top there, that's contact. Or if you wanna submit a question for the show, for our money q and a episodes, you can also do that there or on Instagram.
But let me know if you like these full on breakdowns. We could do more of them, four different portfolios, and let me know what portfolios you want us to look at. Listen. Thank you guys so much for listening to this episode. If you wanna learn more about how to invest in index funds and ETFs just like this, check out our Course Index Fund Pro.
It walks you through step by step on exactly how to build out your portfolio based on your risk tolerance and everything else. So check out Index Fund Pro if you're interested in it. We made it affordable for everybody, 99 bucks. So Index Fund Pro, we will have linked up in this show notes as well. Thank you guys so much for listening to this.
Hope you learned a ton. I truly appreciate each and every one of you. All we wanna do is bring you as much value as possible when it comes to building generational wealth, and I'm so excited to watch each and every single one of you do. Just that, thank you again for listening. We will see ya on the next episode.
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